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JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Raised Growth Estimations for Turkey

JP Morgan raised growth estimation to 8.4% from 6.8%, Goldman Sachs raised growth estimation to 9.5% from 7.5%...

Moody's: "Turkish Economy to Grow by 6 Percent in 2021"

US investment banks JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have raised economic growth estimation for Turkey because of the strong course of domestic and foreign demand.

JP Morgan has also revised the 2021 growth estimation for Turkey as 8.4% from 6.8%, kept the 2022 growth estimation at 3.4% level. In the subject report, it is noted that upward risks may be involved in estimations especially in case the government preferred to go to an early election.

Goldman Sachs has raised 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimation for Turkey to 9.5% from 7.5%. Goldman Sachs economists have noted in the assessment released after GDP data, "Generally, Turkey economy could grow faster than we thought as the result of the recovery in foreign demand happened to be very supportive without any deterioration in the foreign equilibrium of Turkey economy by the foreign balances".

As is known, TÜİK has recently announced Turkey's economy grew by 21.7% in the second quarter compared to the same period of the previous year under base impact TEBA:2033/ September 1, 2021.

Moody's: "Turkish Economy to Grow by 6 Percent in 2021"

The international credit rating agency Moody's announced its growth expectations for the global economy and Turkish economy. 

According to the statement made by Moody's, credit growth is a key factor in economic recovery. It is reported that a recovery in the global economic outlook, Turkish tourism sector and progress in vaccination are supporting factors for the growth of the Turkish economy. According to the report, the base effect will play a key role in the strong growth and the economy of Turkey will grow by 6.0 percent in 2021.  

Also noting that they expect a serious slowdown in the momentum of growth, Moody's attributed this to tightening financial conditions and a lower credit growth than last year and forecast that persistently high inflation will slow down growth after 2021. 

Estimating that the economic growth will fall to the level of 3.6 percent after 2021, Moody's emphasized in its estimation that they do not expect the government to push again for powerful credit growth.

For G20 economies, Moody's forecast a 6.5-percent growth for 2021 and 4.5-percent growth for 2022. According to Moody's, the developed economies of G20 will grow by 5.6 percent this year and 4.2 percent next year. On the other hand, the growth of the developing members of G20 will be 5.7 percent this year and 4.1 percent next year.

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