11/6/2018
7. Turkey Wind Energy Congress (TÜREK 2018) (III)
TÜREB Board Member Tuna Güven: "Turkey aims to achieve 16 GW of wind power installed capacity by 2027. This is only possible by commissioning a 1-GW wind power plant each year, which we can accomplish considering that we did it in previous years. We suggest that frequent and regular tenders be organized in small lots, and a 3-to-5-year tender schedule be drawn up and announced. This should increase predictability for the entire wind power ecosystem."
ENERCON Turkey General Manager Arif Günyar: "We should be more careful with global markets of wind power. The risk premium in the countries with lower credit rating in terms of bankability have a higher risk premium. Therefore, a difficult period has started for WPP investors and suppliers in new markets"...
We continue to present you the important speeches delivered at the 7. Turkey Wind Energy Congress (TÜREK 2018) organized by the Turkish Association of Wind Power (TÜREB) on November 5 and 6, 2018. TÜREB Board Member and Borusan EnBW Enerji Yatırımları A.Ş. Director, Tuna Güven TÜREB Board Member and Borusan EnBW Enerji Yatırımları A.Ş. Director of Operations, Tuna Güven stated that Turkey had a WPP installed capacity of 7 GW as suggested by TÜREB reports and that the wind power industry aimed to achieve 16 GW of installed capacity by 2027 according to the investor guide published by the last Ministry of Energy. Güven said: 16 GW by 2027 is only possible by commissioning a 1-GW wind power plant each year, which we can accomplish considering that we did it in previous years." Emphasizing that it is important to have the same objective in all policy documents, Güven stated that this would ensure that all stakeholders including the investors, wind measurers, site developers, engineering companies, service and maintenance companies, construction and logistics companies, turbine manufacturers and consultancy companies to progress towards a common objective. Güven said: "12 GW of WPP capacity was allocated, and 60 percent of it was commissioned in Turkey pre-2007 and in 2011. There are 64 power plants which were allocated capacity in 2011 and are in operation. Those 64 power plants were commissioned in 4.4 years on average (weighted average). Based on this analysis, it is fair to say that the industry has a tender stock of 40 percent, and a power plant that is tendered today will start commercial operation in 4.5 years." Based on the 40-percent tender stock, Güven suggested tendering another 8 or 9 MW of capacity by 2023 so that the objective of 16 GW can be achieved by 2027. Emphasizing the importance of publishing a long-term tender schedule to ensure predictability in the industry, Güven said: "All European countries have already published their yearly tender schedules up to 2022." TÜREB Board Member and Borusan EnBW Enerji Yatırımları A.Ş. Director of Operations, Tuna Güven pointed to the importance of the predictability of the pricinc mechanism to be enforced after 2020 for sustaining the momentum achieved in the renewable energy. He also emphasized that small and medium-scale investors may bid in the tenders if 50-MW and smaller lots in addition to large lots are tendered. Reminding that tenders were organized in 2017 for the applications received in 2015, Güven stated that this was a sufficient period, and that organizing tenders frequently and regularly, and setting and announcing a tender schedule beforehand would be good for predictability as the first condition of sustainability. ENERCON Turkey General Manager Arif Günyar During the session on the Global WPP Markets on the Congress day 1, ENERCON Turkey General Manager Arif Günyar talked about the current state of the WPP market. Noting that the global installed capcaity of WPP was 54 GW in 2017, Günyar stated that emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America were expected to grow but the growth would slow down in global WPP markets in 2019, 2029 and 2021, then it would accelerate after 2022 but they did not expect an excessive growth and that it would not exceed 10 percent. Pointing out that it is important to be careful with the new global markets in 2018, Günyar reminded that risk premium was higher for the countries with lower bankability rating, and stated that WPP investors and suppliers entered a challenging period in emerging global markets. Stating that they assessed political and country risks, technical and commercial risks while investing, Günyar noted that legal infrastructure and general legislation of countries as well as technical criteria (power infrastructure and geographical characteristics) were decisive. Noting that they realized projects under such contracts as EPC contracts in the European market and Turkey, Günyar reported that they considered whether they should apply this to new markets, and that they checked a variety of conditions including bankability of the project, legislation and occupational safety. Noting that they preferred bankable and insurable countries and projects, Günyar stated that prices declined a lot and that they usually had to consider price risks and general market risks as well. Pointing out that the use of the state-of-the-art turbines in Turkey in recent years resulted in about 76-percent increase in WPP capacity factor, Günyar noted that the turbine orders placed in America, Europe and Asia were mostly 2 MW and 3 MW turbines with rotor diameters of 126 to 135 meters, and that mostly 3 to 4-MW turbines would be ordered until 2023. Günyar noted that turbines of 5 MW and above would come, the technology would advance faster and the cost factor would play an important part in those advances. Pointing out that there is a general narrowing down in current global WPP markets, Günyar talked about how ENERCON prepared for this period. Emphasizing that the current trend is towards "globalization and localization", Günyar stated that they aimed to maintain their stability and growth in current markets and that they closely followed the new markets in the industry. Günyar also noted that they included new wind turbine models, power storage systems and charge stations to develop to address the demands and requests of investors as a supplier of a wide range of systems and technologies.
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