Reports   Research   Macro Indicators

11/29/2016

OECD's Global Economic Outlook Report of November 2016

"Global economy is trapped in "lower growth" however, moderate growth can be attained by actively implementing the monetary policies. Investment and trade are weak. Political uncertainties and financial risks are high."

OECD reduced Turkey’s 2016 growth estimation below of 3%, to 2.9%

Organization of Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) has released Global Economic Outlook Report of November 2016.  

In the report, it is underlined that global economy is trapped in "lower growth" however, moderate growth can be attained by actively implementing the monetary policies. It is also underlined that investment and trade are weak, political uncertainties and financial risks are high. However, lower interest rates may create an opportunity opening. Decreasing the costs of trade is noted to increase growth but putting restrictions on trade will create risks. It is also underlined that expansionist monetary policies will reduce inequality and increase growth.

Growth rate of Turkey for 2016 reduced to below of 3%

In OECD Report, it is noted that Turkey’s 2016 growth rate expected to be below of 3%, however, until 2018, can catch 3% and a little over 3%. Turkey’s growth rate for 2016 reduced to 2.9%, foreseen to be 3.3% in 2017 and 3.8% in 2018. 

According to report, the geopolitical fluctuations have impacts on Turkey economy, uncertainties are high but cautious monetary policies are supportive for economy and encouraging for household consumption until the end of 2016. It is also noted that new and generous incentives are extended for revitalizing the investments however impacts of this cannot be properly felt yet. Sustainable trust environment to be secured through institutional reforms is noted to be important for revitalizing private sector investments. 

"Cost of big infrastructure projects may decrease"

Tough financial capacity secured through rational budget policy is said to maintain authorities to implement counter measures stage by stage. 2017-2019 medium term economic program has been released in October, earlier than expected, by the infrastructure investments. It is noted "Big infrastructure projects may decrease costs by transparent and comprehensive planning, production and fiscal management (investments made within Public Private Sector Partnership coverage included) and resources can be spared for other expenditures like education".

In the report, economy is said to be resilient against sharp shocks and noted, "We expect economic growth to be 3.3% in 2017 and 3.8% in 2018 with recovery in household consumption and gradual increase in export". However, household consumption slowed down along 2016 that would lead to sharp decrease in consumer credits and credit card debts. 

In OECD Report, growth expectations for countries are: